(환경) 인구통제 정책으로 지구의 환경문제 해결 못한다

출처: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29788754

27 October 2014 Last updated at 21:50

Population controls 'will not solve environment issues' 인구통제정책으로 지구의 환경문제 해결 못한다

By Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent, BBC News

Nargis, born in 2011, was named the world's seven billionth person by Plan International 2011년에 태어난 이 아기 날지스는 전세계에서 70억번째 태어난 아기다.

Restricting population growth will not solve global issues of sustainability in the short term, new research says. 인구증가를 억제한다해서 단기간에 지구의 유지가능성 문제들을 해결하지 못할 것이라는, 최근 연구결과가 나왔다.

A worldwide one-child policy would mean the number of people in 2100 remained around current levels, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 전세계적 추세인 한 자녀 갖기 운동(을 계속 시행한다해도)은 2100년 전세계 인구는 현재 수준에 머무르는 걸 의미한다고, 

Even a catastrophic event that killed billions of people would have little effect on the overall impact, it said. 심지어 수십억명을 죽였던 대재앙조차 별 큰 영향을 미칠 수 없다고, 연구보고서는 말한다.

There may be 12 billion humans on Earth by 2100, latest projections suggest. 2100년이면 지구상 인구가 120억이 될 거라고 최근의 추산은 밝힌다.

Concerns about the impact of people on the planet's resources have been growing, especially if the population continues to increase. 지구상 인구가 지구의 자원에 미치는 영향에 대한 관심은 날로 고조되고 있다. 특히 인구가 계속해서 증가하고 있기 때문에.

'Can't stop it' '어쩔 수 없다'

The authors of this new study said roughly 14% of all the people who ever existed were alive today. 최신 연구의 저자들은 일찌기 과거에 생존했던 전체 인구 가운데 대략 14%가 오늘날까지도 살아있었다고 말한다.

These growing numbers mean a greater impact on the environment than ever, with worries about the conversion of forests for agriculture, the rise of urbanisation, the pressure on species, pollution, and climate change. 이처럼 지구의 인구증가는 과거 어느 때보다 환경에 커다란 영향(삼림의 농지화, 도시화, 생물에 대한 부담, 오염, 기후변화 같은)을 끼친다는 걸 뜻한다. 

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Even if we had a third world war in the middle of this century, you would barely make a dent in the trajectory over the next 100 years”

Prof Corey BradshawUniversity of Adelaide

The picture is complicated by the fact that while the overall figures have been growing, the world's per-capita fertility has been declining for several decades.

The impact on the environment has increased substantially, however, because of rising affluence and consumption rates.

Many experts have argued the best way of tackling this impact is to facilitate a rapid transition to much lower fertility rates.

To work out the impact on population, the team constructed nine different scenarios for population change up to the year 2100, using data from the World Health Organization, and the US Census Bureau's international database.

They also used "catastrophe scenarios" to simulate the impacts of climate disruption, wars or global pandemics on population trends.

According to the study, attempts to curb our population as a short-term fix will not work.

If China's much criticised one-child policy was implemented worldwide, the Earth's population in 2100 would still be between five and 10 billion, it says. 중국의 한 자녀 갖기 운동이 전세계적으로 시행된다해도, 2100년 지구의 인구는 여전히 50억에서 100억 사이가 될 것이다.

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Rising population impacts the environment through deforestation and pressure on natural resources

"We've gone past the point where we can do it easily, just by the sheer magnitude of the population, what we call the demographic momentum. We just can't stop it fast enough," said Prof Corey Bradshaw from the University of Adelaide.

"Even draconian measures for fertility control still won't arrest that growth rate - we're talking century-scale reductions rather than decadal scale, because of the magnitude."

In their paper, the researchers also look at the impact on numbers of a global catastrophe in the middle of this century. They found that even an event that wiped out two billion people would still leave about eight and a half billion in 2100.

"Even if we had a third world war in the middle of this century, you would barely make a dent in the trajectory over the next 100 years," said Prof Bradshaw, something he described as "sobering".

'Difficult to tackle' '제동 걸기가 어렵다'

The scientists said the issue of population and its impact on global consumption was often described as the "elephant in the room" - a problem that the world ignores as it is politically and ethically difficult to tackle. 과학자들이 지구의 인구와 그 인구가 미치는 지구의 소비에 대한 문제는 "방 안에 있는 코끼리"(정치적으로 윤리적으로 테클 걸기가 난해하다고 세계가 무시해왔던 문제)와 같다고 흔히 묘하하곤 했다고 말한다.

But the research shows that curbing numbers will not deal with environmental challenges in the short term. 그러나 연구결과는 사람수를 억제한다는 것이 단기간에 환경에 대한 도전까지 다루진 않을 거라고 한다.

"Our work reveals that effective family planning and reproduction education worldwide have great potential to constrain the size of the human population and alleviate pressure on resource availability over the longer term," said Prof Barry Brook from the University of Tasmania.

"Our great-great-great-great grandchildren might ultimately benefit from such planning, but people alive today will not."

As a result of this long-term impact, the world should focus on curbing consumption and designing ways to conserve species and ecosystems.

"Society's efforts towards sustainability would be directed more productively towards reducing our impact as much as possible through technological and social innovation," says Prof Bradshaw.