(환경) '충분히 감당할 수 있는' 기후변화 해결책

출처: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29213679

16 September 2014 Last updated at 05:57

Climate change remedies 'affordable', says global body '충분히 감당할 수 있는" 기후변화 해결책

By Roger HarrabinBBC environment analyst

The report argues tackling climate change is relatively cheap 기후변화에 제동을 거는 일은 상대적으로 저렴하다고 보고서는 말한다

Politicians will put the world economy at risk if they fail to tackle climate change, a global commission has warned. 정치인들이 기후변화문제에 제동을 걸지 않는다면, 세계경제는 위험에 처할 것이라고, 글로벌 커미션은 경고하고 있다.

The body, a group of chief executives, former prime ministers and finance ministers, argues the cost of tackling climate change is modest. 전직 수상들과 재정장관들로 구성된 단체(글로벌 코미션)는 기후변화에 제동을 거는 비용은 비싸지 않다고 말한다. 

Its report says adding 5% to the $6 trillion (£3.7tn; 4.6tn euros) a year due to be spent on power and transport projects could buy clean technology. 이 단체의 보고서에 의하면, 전력과 교통 프로젝트에 돈을 쓰기 위해 1년에 6조 달러의 5%를 추가하면, (환경공학의)클린테크놀로지를 구입할 수 있다고 말한다.

Critics say the report is too optimistic. 반대하는 사람들은 이 보고서가 너무 난관적이라고 한다.

The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate was set up by seven governments and informed by research organisations around the world. 환경과 기후를 위한 글로벌 코미션은 7개 정부의 전직각료들에 의해 설립이 되어 전세계의 연구소들과 협력하고 있다.

Creating sprawling car-dependent cities will lock in high pollution, the commission says 제멋대로 뻗어나가는 자동차 중심의 도시들은 높은 오염을 초래할 것이라고, 코미션은 말한다.

It is chaired by former Mexican President Felipe Calderon and advised by Lord Stern, former UK government economist and author of a previous review of climate change economics. 멕시코의 전직 대통령 펠리페 칼데론이 회의를 주관했고 영국정부의 전직 경제전문가이자 기후변화경제의 지난 호 저자인 스턴 경이 자문역할을 했다.

Its report says one key to safeguarding the climate is to change spending priorities for new infrastructure. 이 회의가 낸 보고서는 기후를 보호할 수 있는 하나의 열쇠는 새로운 기반시설을 위한 지출우선순위를 바꾸는 것이라 말한다. 

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Former president of Mexico Felipe Calderon explains the findings

Creating sprawling car-dependent cities will lock in high pollution, whilst planning dense cities with good public transport will help keep emissions down, cut local pollution and improve quality of life, it says. 무분별하게 자동차에 의존하는 도시들을 만들면, (그 도시들이) 高오염 속에 갇히게 되나, 양질의 대중교통수단으로 빽빽히 채워진 도시를 계획하면, 온실가스배출은 줄어들고, 지방의 오염은 줄어들며, 삶의 질 역시 개선될 것이라고, 이 보고서는 말하고 있다. 

The commission says that by developing in this way, governments can collectively save $3 trillion over the next 15 years. 이 코미션은 이런 방식으로 개발을 함으로써, 각 정부는 다음 15년간 전체적으로 3조 달러를 절약할 수 있다고 말한다.

New economics 新경제학

It says the costs of tackling climate change has fallen as new technologies have matured. 기후변화문제를 제동 거는데 드는 비용은 새로운 테크놀로지가 발전하면서 떨어지고 있다고 말한다.

The prices of wind and particularly solar power have plunged whilst pollution from fossil fuels now reduces global economic output by 4%. This has changed the economics of climate change, the commission claims. 풍력 그리고 특히 태양열 전력의 단가는 떨어지는 동안, 화석연료로부터 얻은 대기오염은 이제 지구경제의 산출량을 4% 감소시키고 있다. 이것이 기후변화의 경제학을 변화시키고 있다고, 이 코미션은 주장한다.

Its 300-page document says new technologies can help the billion people living in rural areas who are unconnected to electricity grids. 이 코미션의 300 쪽 분량의 문서는 새로운 테크놀로지는 전기설비가 가설되지 않은 시골지역에 사는 10조 명의 사람들을 도울 수 있다고 말한다.

The commission said London was a "poster child" for best practice on climate change 코미션은 런던은 얼마전까지 기후변화에 가장 잘 대응했던 "포스터에 등장하는 아동"이었다고 한다

New standards for equipment and cars - like the EU ban on high-voltage vacuum cleaners - can help drive cleaner products, it argues. 高전압 진공청소기 같은 장비나 자동차들에 관한 새로운 기준들은 정화용 생산품들을 사용하는데 도움이 될 수 있다고, 코미션은 말한다.

Lead author of the report, Jeremy Oppenheim, told BBC News: "The key message is that we can deliver better growth and tackle climate change at the same time - we don't need to choose." 그 보고서의 제1(주)저자 제레미 오펜하임은 "핵심적 메시지는 우리가 성장에 도움을 줄 수 있는 동시에 기후변화에 제동을 걸 수 있으므로, 우리가 달리 선택할 필요가 없다는 점이다."라고 비비시 뉴스에 전했다.

As examples of best practice in cities he held up Brazil's Curitiba, Colombia's Bogota - and also London: "London is a poster child," he said. "We're redefining the city - we've got a public transport system that works; we've introduced congestion pricing for our roads; we're driving better productivity through our transport system - and that's helping the city as a whole." 위에 언급한 부분을 가장 잘 실천하고 있는 좋은 예들로는, 그가 보기에, 브라질의 쿠리티바, 콜롬비아의 보고타 그리고 런던이 있다. "런던은 (좋은 본보기로서) 포스터 속 아동"이라고 그는 말했다. "우리는 이 도시를 재정돈하고 있다.(우리는 잘 운영되는 대중교통시스템이 있다; 일부 도로에 혼잡통행료를 도입했다; 교통시스템을 통해서 생산성이 좋아지고 있다.) 이런 정책은 런던 전체에 도움이 되고 있다.

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Good public transport can help to reduce pollution, the commission says 양질의 대중교통은 오염을 줄일 수 있다고, 코미션은 말한다

The report is a successor to the Stern Review drawn up in 2006 which described climate change as the world's biggest market failure. The new report agrees, and labels urban sprawl the second biggest market failure. 그 보고서는 2006년에 나온 <Stern Review(엄격한 리뷰)>의 후속판이다. 이 리뷰는 기후변화가 세계의 시장실패라고 묘사하고 있다.

The Stern Review was criticised for putting too high a value on the benefits to future generations of cutting emissions now.

Some economists argued that it made more sense to maximise the economy now and use our wealth to pay to clean up later. The commission believes this idea is reckless.

What is more, Mr Oppenheim says, the new report is practical not theoretical, and does not rely on long-term projections.

Professor Gordon Hughes, an energy economist at Edinburgh University, says the conclusions are over-optimistic.

The total costs of renewables to energy systems as a whole were greater than they appeared, he said.

He told BBC News: "I believe there is a significant problem with climate change, although the magnitude is hard to quantify.

The frequency of "extreme weather events" is increasing as a result of climate change, experts believe 기후변화의 결과로서 "극단적인 기후 사건들"이 점점 빈번해지고 있다고, 전문가들은 믿고 있다 

"We in rich countries are on a development path which we may regret - but developing countries are now following along the same path. We cannot tell them 'do as I say, not as I do'.

"Choices can still be made but the idea that we can suddenly make changes to development patterns underway is assuming we have a blank slate and that people are prepared to radically depart from current trends - and that's not plausible."

But Mohamed Adow, a Kenyan working for Christian Aid, told BBC News: "Developing countries are seeing the effects of climate change for themselves in the form of extreme weather events. Many leaders are looking for a new way of doing things that doesn't involve them contributing to the climate problem - if only they can get help to do that from the West."

The report's authors do acknowledge the scale of the political challenge. The authors, for instance, want a "fair" price on carbon pollution, but politicians often face uproar if they raise taxes on polluting industries or increase the cost of home heating.

The commission says pressure by drivers to keep cheap petrol often wins the day  운전자들이 값싼 기름을 넣겠다는 의지는 승리를 거둔다고, 코미션은 말한다

They want to phase out subsidies to fossil fuels, which total more than $500bn a year compared with $100bn for renewables. But pressure by drivers to keep cheap petrol often wins the day.

The hope for firmer city planning in developing countries will be widely welcomed, but the authors agree it will have to overcome a lack of administrative capacity at local and national levels; corruption; a rush of rural people into slums; inertia; and business lobbying.

The Global Commission says the climate problem can be tackled with strong inspired leadership. Without this, the authors warn, CO2 will continue to acidify the ocean and temperatures could rise to a catastrophic 4C by the end of the century.

Members of the commission include: Nemat Shafik, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; Paul Polman, Unilever chief executive; Chen Yuan, former chairman, China Development Bank; Annise Parker, mayor of Houston; Luisa Diogo, former prime minister of Mozambique; Angel Gurria, secretary-general, OECD; Chad Holliday, chairman, Bank of America; Ricardo Lagos, former president of Chile; Takehiko Nakao, president, Asian Development Bank; Eduardo Paes, mayor of Rio de Janeiro; and Sharan Burrow, general secretary, International Trade Union Confederation.