(국제문제) 지구촌의 가난은 없앨 수 있을까?

출처: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32082968

Is it possible to end global poverty? 지구촌에서 가난을 없앨 수 있을까?

Linda Yueh

Chief Business Correspondent

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Can global poverty ever be ended? The United Nations is expected to later this year adopt the World Bank's ambitious target of ending extreme poverty by 2030. 지구촌에서 가난은 사라질 수 있을까? 2030년까지 지구촌에서 극빈을 없애겠다는 야심찬 세계은행의 목표를 금년 하반기에 유엔이 수용할 것으로 기대를 모으고 있다.

Later this year, the UN is expected to adopt the World Bank's ambitious target of ending extreme poverty by 2030. 지구촌에서 2030년까지 절대빈곤(극빈)을 없애겠다는 야심찬 세계은행의 목표를 금년 하반기에 유엔이 수용할 것으로 기대를 모으고 있다.

It would mean that for the first time, everyone in the world would able to afford a refrigerator and other goods that would make life a bit easier. 이는 인류역사상 처음으로 모든 세상사람들이 냉장고나 생활을 좀 더 용이하게 해주는 기타 물품들을 사용할 수 있게 해준다는 것을 의미한다.

But, what would it take? Could we really see the end of poverty within a generation? 그러나 이것은 뭐를 필요로 하는가? 우리는 우리 세대에 정말로 가난의 종말을 볼 수 있을까?

First, there's been a great deal of progress already. 우선, 이미 상당한 진전이 있었다.

The poverty rate in the developing world has more than halved since 1981. Back then, 52% of people in developing countries lived on less than $1.25 (84p) per day. That's now dropped to 15%. 개발도상국의 가난 비율이 1981년 이래 절반으로 줄었다. 당시에는 개도국의 국민들 52%가 하루에 1.25달러 이하로 생활했는데, 이제는 15%까지 떨어졌다.

In terms of the UN's Millennium Development Goals, it meant that the target of halving poverty by 2015 from 1990 levels was achieved five years early. In 1990, more than one-third (36%) of the world's population lived in abject poverty. That was halved to 18% in 2010. 유엔의 밀레니엄 개발 목표들에 따르면, 2015년까지 1990년 수준의 가난을 절반으로 낮추겠다는 목표는 5년 앞당겨 달성했다. 1990년에는 전세계 인구 1/3(36%)가 절대빈곤 속에서 살았다.

For China, which has accounted for the bulk of the poverty reduction in the past few decades, the answer is economic growth.

But, it was due largely to China. So, there are still about a billion people who live in extreme poverty. 그러나 이런 결과는 주도 중국 덕분이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 여전히 10억명은 절대빈곤 속에서 살고 있다.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where the number of poor people has increased during the past three decades. 사하라남부 아프리카는 지난 30년간 빈곤층의 수가 유일하게 증가한 지역이다.

Even though the percentage of the African population living in extreme poverty is slightly lower than in 1981 - population growth means that the number of people has actually doubled. 절대가난 속에서 사는 아프리카 인구의 퍼센트가 1981년도보다 약간 낮아졌음에도 불구하고, 인구증가는 사람수가 실제로 배가 되었다는 걸 의미한다.

They account for more than one-third of the poor in the world, despite Africa making up just 11% of the global population. 이는 아프리카가 전세계 인구의 11%를 차지함에도 불구하고, 전세계의 빈곤층의 1/3이상을 차지한다는 걸 말해주는 것이다. 

By contrast, in East Asia, progress has been remarkable. Four out of five people, or 80%, lived in poverty in 1981, and that rate has now dropped to 8%. on current trends, the fastest-growing region in the world could see the end of poverty within a generation. 이와 대조적으로, 동아시아의 경우, 발전이 괄목할만하다. 1981년 당시 4/5 혹은 80%가 가난 속에서 살았으나, 이 비율은 8%로 하락했다. 현재 흐름을 보면, 전세계에서 초고속으로 성장하는 지역의 경우에는 한 세대 안에 가난을 종식시킬 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

'Frictional poverty' '마찰적(들쭉날쭉한/유동적) 가난'

But, what about the billion people who still live in poverty? 그러나, 여전히 가난 속에서 살아가는 10억 인구는 어떻게 되는가?

The World Bank projects that it's possible to end extreme poverty by 2030. But, it would take a heroic effort. The number of people in poverty will have to decrease by 50 million each year. That is the equivalent of about a million people each week for the next 15 years. 세계은행은 2030년까지 절대빈곤을 끝낼 수 있다고 계획하고 있다.

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World Bank President Jim Yong Kim says ending extreme poverty is possible

I asked the World Bank President Jim Yong Kim if it was achievable. He was confident, but emphasised that it would require funding and a raft of targeted policies to raise incomes and productivity. 나는 세계은행 총재 짐 김용에게 그게 달성할 수 있는지 물었다. 그는 확신했으나, 그렇게 하기 위해서 자금이 필요하고 수입과 생산성을 제고하기 위해 많은 중점정책들이 필요하다는 점을 강조했다. 

He praised countries like the UK who could commit 0.7% of their GDP to development, and added that it would bolster British "soft power" abroad. That'll be welcome to those who have been debating the UK's role in the world amidst cutbacks. 그는 영국 같은 나라들은 그들의 GDP의 0.7%를 개발에 투입할 수 있다고 칭찬을 했으며, 영국의 해외 "소프트 파워"를 강화하게 될 것이란 점도 덧붙였다. (재정/인원)감축을 시행하고 있는 전세계에서 영국의 역할에 대해 왈가왈부하는 사람들에게 환영받을 것이다.

In these debates, definitions also matter. So, what precisely does the end of poverty look like? It doesn't mean that no one lives on less than $1.25 per day. 이와 같은 논쟁에서, 개념규정은 문제가 된다. 그렇다면, 정확히 말해서 가난의 종식은 무엇과 같은가? 가난의 종식이라해서 하루에 1.25달러 이하로 생활하는 사람이 전혀 없다는 걸 뜻하진 않는다.

The World Bank assumes that a 3% poverty rate is equivalent to the end of poverty since there will be some who move in and out of poverty, for example when they lose their jobs, so there will always be some "frictional" poverty. 세계은행이 가정할 때, 빈곤율 3%는 가난의 종식에 해당한다. 왜냐하면 그 3%대에는 가난에서 빠져나오거나 직업을 잃게 되면서 가난 속에 빠지는 사람들이 있기 때문에, 늘 "마찰적(유동적)" 가난은 있게 마련이다. 

Even so, the task of reducing poverty at that pace is so daunting that economists forecast that the global poverty rate is more likely to be 8% in 2030. That works out to be about 664 million people still living in poverty out of an estimated 8.3 billion people on the planet.

Which policies could work to get us to that outcome?

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China's rapid economic growth has taken millions of people out of poverty

For China, which has accounted for the bulk of the poverty reduction in the past few decades, the answer is economic growth.

However, Paul Collier of Oxford University calls the China precedent "misleading" when it comes to lessons for Africa. He points out that income growth in Africa has been based on natural resources and the gains are not widely shared.

China's context is that of an economy transitioning from central planning and under the governance of a one-party state. That means, for instance, land is all effectively owned by the government.

It doesn't mean that some haven't become very wealthy developing land based on government favour. But it means that wages and self-employment have accounted for most of the rise in incomes, and not land or resources.

These aren't the only reasons for China's poverty reduction, of course, or for East Asia which has seen such dramatic falls in poverty. But, in particular, China has not relied on external aid.

African focus

The evidence of the impact of aid on reducing poverty across countries isn't compelling even though there are successful in-country examples, which has led to a heated debate over the effectiveness of international aid.

Kevin Watkins, head of the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), believes that there is a role for aid to play, but there needs to be an overhaul of the way that it is used. Paul Collier agrees and argues that aid should be used to attract private investment in some of the poorest countries in Africa.

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Extreme poverty remains a problem in Africa's poorest nations

So, it's hard to draw lessons from the past two decades in terms of the remaining stubborn pockets of poverty. After all, Africa has been the second-fastest growing region in the world, but hasn't seen falls in the number of the poor.

For instance, Tanzania, which has grown well and been devoid of conflict, has seen the number of poor rise from nine million two decades ago to 15 million today.

South Asia also lags in terms of the progress made in East Asia, so you can't just count on growth to lift the bottom billion out of poverty. However, policies such as raising agricultural productivity - something that Henrietta Moore of UCL argues for - would help.

Doubtless, the circumstances of individual countries matter a great deal in terms of what works. But, if the progress made in the past couple of decades can be replicated in some fashion - and tailored to individual countries - then it's possible that another 18% of the world population can be lifted out of poverty. It would indeed mean the end of poverty in our lifetimes.

To paraphrase Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas on economic growth, once you start thinking about it, it's hard to think about anything else.

  

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